RE24 By Event (2009-2011)

For whatever reason it is extremely difficult to find Run Expectancy values calculated for a recent time period. Since I have the data thanks to Retrosheet and the means to do it, I figured that I would help satisfy the need (at least I think there is a need for it).

The table below gives the Run Expectancy values for some of the most common events by the 24 base/out states. It was calculated using 2009-2011 play-by-play data using only the first 8 innings (to prevent the sample from including innings that weren't completed).

Some oddities I noticed that are possibly/definitely sample driven and/or evidence of the diminished run environment of the last few years (hat tip to the invaluable Tom Tango for a comparison table):

• the spread increase in value between a non-intentional walk and a hit-by-pitch. In the past a hbp was worth about 0.05 runs more than a walk, over 2009-2011 it doubled to 0.10 more
• the spread decrease between a stolen base and a caught stealing. In the past the break even point for stolen bases was thought to be around 70-75%. Based on these numbers it is only around 62% on average.

2011-2012 CBB Season - 22 Points and 17 Rebound Games

2013 NBA Draft - 30 Who Missed the Cut

Yesterday I compiled a list of my top 25 prospects for the 2013 NBA draft, not including players from the incoming Freshman class. Today I want to post the players that missed the cut, but with a good year could make their way into the top 25.

I also want to address some of the names you won't find here: C.J. Fair, Richard Howell, DeAndre Daniels, Tim Hardaway Jr., Michael Snaer and Seth Curry probably the most glaring omissions. None of those players have shown enough (from my perspective) to warrant a first round consideration. C.J. Fair is being touted as a possible late first round pick right now, but I just don't see it. Sure he's a great athlete, but where is the consistent production? I'm the farthest thing from a scout, so there is a high probability I'm missing a lot in my evaluation, but that's where it is at the moment.

Unlike yesterday, this list is order by POA and not in the order which I would take these players in the draft. Players like Adreian Payne and Shabazz Napier would probably be near the top of this list if I spent the time to subjectively rank them.

2013 NBA Draft - Best Non Freshman Prospects

The following list only includes players returning to school, so you won't find Freshman like Nerlens Noel or Isaiah Austin. The final column, labeled "POA", is the player's 2011-2012 NCAA Points Over Average total. The statistic is similar to John Hollinger's PER. You will likely notice that players aren't ordered by POA; it was used as a guide but I made some subjective decisions on certain players.

One final note: I do not think this is the order these players will be taken nor is it the order I would take them. For example, Adonis Thomas is an amazing talent who if he develops could be a top 10 pick. If I were an NBA GM, I would certainly consider taking him right not with a lottery pick, despite what POA is showing. Think of the list as one part production plus one part scouting plus one part risk aversion.

PIT@PHI 6.28.2012

6.28.2012 Pittsburgh Pirates (39-35) @ Philadelphia Phillies (36-41)
Pitching Matchup: A.J. Burnett (8-2, 3.24 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-7, 5.24 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -103
LV Over / Under Open: 8.5

The line is at PHI +108 right now, which is basically where the simulator puts it (PHI +105). It shows that a bet on either the Pirates or the Phillies is a losing proposition. However, I actually like the Phillies today as one of those speculative lines coming out of LV. The Pirates look superficially like a decent favorite with Burnett going against Kendrick, and yet the game opened as a coin-flip. As expected, the market pushed the line towards the Pirates, exactly where you'd speculate it would move.

Since the simulator has been much more right than wrong on these matters, it probably makes sense to just stay away, but I can't help thinking the Phils have a better shot at winning this game than the sim and market are suggesting.

Go Phils!

PIT@PHI 6.26.2012

6.26.2012 Pittsburgh Pirates (38-34) @ Philadelphia Phillies (35-40)
Pitching Matchup: Erik Bedard (4-7, 4.13 ERA) vs. Vance Worley (3-4, 2.78 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -138
LV Over / Under Open: 7.5

PIT@PHI 6.25.2012

6.25.2012 Pittsburgh Pirates (38-33) @ Philadelphia Phillies (34-40)
Pitching Matchup: Jeff Karstens (0-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. Joe Blanton (6-6, 5.04 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -138
LV Over / Under Open: 8.5 

COL@PHI 6.21.2012

6.21.2012 Colorado Rockies (25-42) @ Philadelphia Phillies (33-37)
Pitching Matchup: Jeff Francis (0-1, 12.46 ERA) vs. Vance Worley (3-3, 2.80 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -172
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0

I won't be doing any analysis today. With Jeff Francis pitching for the Rockies, the difficultly I see in trying to forecast his performance makes this game a pass for me. I would think that the Phils could be overpriced due to this uncertainty, considering Francis has been heroically bad in his two starts this season, but that won't change my mind.

Go Phils!

Defending the Aardvark (And Last Night's Game)

Process or results. An aging veteran towards the end of his career is signed and produces a season beyond expectations. Was it a savvy move by the team's General Manager? Perhaps the GM realized decline phase athletes went from over-priced commodities to under-priced. Or perhaps the GM concocted his value out of perception: "I can't believe THIS GUY is available. He's got over 350 career home runs! We're signing him!" It is never as simple as either case, but potentially more important than the why is the question of does the why even matter. Again: process or results.

A couple of years ago I read an interesting article at the Hardball Times which addressed this very concept in relation to the San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean. Sabean is constant fodder for many sabermetrically inclined individuals, mostly for good reasons in my opinion. His career MO for a long time had been to sign veteran players to large contracts beyond their value (at least according to the SABR community). Many believed he didn't extract nearly enough value - in terms of playoff success - from the Barry Bonds led teams. And until Pablo Sandoval came along, the farm system for the Giants didn't produce what you could consider an above average offensive position player (sorry, Pedro Feliz). I think these are fair criticisms, but the irony of it all is the article was written in November 2010. If you are missing the relevance, it was just a week after the Giants needed only 5 games to dispatch the heavily favored Texas Rangers in the World Series. That was Sabean's 14th season with the team, the 2nd World Series appearance during his tenure (first win), 5th playoff appearance, and 10th winning season. I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone who would argue his 14 years with the Giants were unsuccessful. Again, you could say they should have been more successful, but that is a different discussion.

So Brian Sabean teams had good results even if his process was considered suboptimal* to some. Last night the Phillies beat the Rockies in somewhat dramatic fashion, needing one of the best first baseman of the last 25 years to suddenly forget how to play the position. If you read my post yesterday, you will realize the simulator thought the Rockies were a really good play. It calculated that last night's game was a bit over a coin-flip (53%) in favor of the Phillies, despite the line (and at least one well thought of simulation) putting it at around a 60/40 game. It is impossible due to the outcome of one game to calculate the future probability one team will beat another, but for most of the game - especially going into the bottom of the ninth - it looked to be much closer to an even odds game than a 60/40 one. Ultimately the simulator was wrong - in a zero sum way - about which way to bet the game last night. And just because the game was very even in its entirety, doesn't mean the true odds for the game were closer to 50/50 than 60/40. But even though mathematically it cannot be proven which was closer to the truth, I'll say that the simulator presented a value which felt closer to the truth. The process made sense and produced an answer that seemed more sensible, especially after watching the game. The results just didn't come.

*There is an obvious question lingering out there which I will not attempt to answer: was his process suboptimal? I think the article does a pretty good job of addressing the major points, so I'll defer you there

COL@PHI 6.20.2012

6.20.2012 Colorado Rockies (25-41) @ Philadelphia Phillies (32-27)
Pitching Matchup: Alex White (2-5, 5.56 ERA) vs. Joe Blanton (6-6, 4.93 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -143
LV Over / Under Open: 9.5

Good win last night for the Phils. Tonight they try to make it two in a row (small victories!), which will be much easier if Joe Blanton can pitch as well as he did during his last start. The simulator thinks the Rockies are a good play though, good for an 11.5% expected ROI where the line is right now (COL +139). I mentioned yesterday that the line movement I was observing seemed to suggest the Phils were really a stronger favorite than the opening line suggested. I'm seeing very similar line movement today, which could suggest the simulator is wrong about tonight. For comparison sake, AccuScore has the Phils as a 56% favorite and TeamRankings puts it at nearly 59%. An aggregation of the methods would put it at about 56%, or about PHI -132 when converted into a money line value. That would still make the Rockies a play at +139, but the ROI would go down by about half.

The simulator loves the under tonight, even at 9.0 where it is now, with 55% of simulations going under 9.0. Subjectively I actually like the over, so it would be a pass for me.

Go Phils!

COL@PHI 6.19.2012

6.19.2012 Colorado Rockies (25-40) @ Philadelphia Phillies (31-37)
Pitching Matchup: Josh Outman (0-2, 8.44 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (9-3, 3.34 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -230
LV Over / Under Open: 8.0

A lot of line movement today: the Phils opened at -230, then the line fell to -205 by 10am this morning, and has since steadily climbed back toward where it opened last night. When I have observed this pattern over the last several weeks, it has seemed that the favorite wins at a far higher rate than would be expected. I must emphasize that is an assessment best characterized as subjective and based on a limited sample. The simulator puts the expected line at PHI -227, which is nearly exactly where it is at the moment (PHI -225). Neither team looks like a good play tonight.

The O/U started at 8.0, but was bet down to 7.5. The simulator has it going over 7.5 a little over 52% of the time, which equates to 7.5o -115. That seems to be the line at most of the books I've checked.

Go Phils!

PHI@TOR 6.15.2012

6.15.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (31-34) @ Toronto Blue Jays (31-32)
Pitching Matchup: Vance Worley (3-2, 3.00 ERA) vs. Drew Hutchinson (5-3, 4.66 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: TOR -125
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0

Sometimes I can't escape thinking about the Ludic Fallacy when I'm deciding the best play on a game. The term, coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan, is the idea that using mathematical models to predict future events - except in very specific scenarios like casino games - is largely fallacious. His argument hinges on three things: 1) it is impossible to possess all the information impacting the outcome 2) unknown variations within the data can have large impact on the outcome 3) models based on empirical data are flawed since they do not account for outcomes that have never happened (so-called "Black Swan" events). The first and second ideas are certainly true and exceptionally important in the sports betting realm, especially since Cantor Gaming has more, better information than everyone else and understands it more completely. The third idea is not entirely relevant to baseball though, since baseball is basically a Markov chain where the individual probabilistic elements can be fairly well calculated. Certainly serious disasters would not be part of the any baseball simulation model*, but they're much less relevant than say trying to empirically model how an asteroid impact would affect the stock market.

If sports betting was about the individual better versus Cantor Gaming, I would completely agree that the idea of any individual beating the system over any extended length of time is extremely improbable. As I said, CG has the best information and some of the smartest people in the business, I wouldn't even bet on myself to beat them consistently. But it isn't all about beating Vegas, since once the opening line is set it is the public (market) who moves the line. So the win consistently, you don't have to be smarter than CG, you have to be smarter than the market. That too is a difficult proposition, as sports betting markets are reasonably efficient, and through aggregate account for far more information than Midas can. But markets aren't always efficient, and they can be affected by perception whereas models are not. Sometimes perception informs reality, but sometimes not. If you read me frequently, I like to talk about how perception and bias are being priced in the market, and how I feel that gives me an opportunity to exploit that inefficiency.

If you haven't figured it out yet, I'm referring to what happened last night. Now basing any opinion on an N of 1 is terribly bad policy, but many of the effects I've been discussing were in play last night. Joe Blanton was stringing together bad game after bad game and Scott Diamond was looking like a left handed Maddux-lite in 2012. But as I said in the post yesterday, that small sample was largely ignored by the simulator, whereas the market seemed to be pricing that recent history into the line. I should have taken advantage of the opportunity to agree with the simulator's assertion that the Phils were a strong play, but I didn't. Hopefully next time I will.

If you're disappointed I haven't spent any time addressing tonight's game, it's because the simulator doesn't see a bet on either team as a good proposition. It has PHI +117 as barely a 1% expected return, which is not nearly what I'm looking for when deciding to recommend a game. Enjoy staying out of this one.

Go Phils!

*I'm sure Game 3 of the 1989 World Series comes to mind when I make this statement, but the game was temporarily suspended and then resumed 5 days later. I'm not sure whether it had any impact on the outcome of Game 3 - or the series - as the Athletics won every game in that series by at least 3 runs. Some may argue that the Giants were adversely affected by the quake, but in fact the Giants scored as many runs in Game 3 as they did in the other three games combined

PHI@MIN 6.14.2012

6.14.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (30-34) @ Minnesota Twins (25-36)
Pitching Matchup: Joe Blanton (5-6, 5.40 ERA) vs. Scott Diamond (5-1, 1.61 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: MIN -126
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0

Even when they win the Phils enjoy torturing their fans. There aren't many times that a 6-0 lead has proven to be so tenuous with Hamels pitching, but last night was one of those times. Something has gotten into the Phillies pitching staff, and it isn't good.

Tonight Joe Blanton faces Scott Diamond. Blanton is attempting to stop his ignominious streak of 5 consecutive games of giving up 5 earned runs or more and failing to get out of the seventh inning. In the last 50 years only 13 pitchers have had a longer streak. What does that stat mean? Absolutely nothing beyond being passably interesting, I think. Certainly the simulator doesn't care about Blanton's search for history. Nor does it care that so far this season Scott Diamond has looked like Greg Maddux in his prime. You think I'm being ridiculous? Go ahead, look at the numbers below comparing Diamond's 2012 to Maddux's 1997 (his highest WAR season):

Ok. So maybe I did exaggerate a little. Scott Diamond's 2012 probably resembles Maddux's seasons a few years later, though need I remind you Maddux was still a very effective pitcher later in his career. I am not, under any circumstances, making the claim that Scott Diamond is the next Greg Maddux. Diamond has shown very good control this year a la Maddux and has been fantastic at inducing ground balls (though his 61% GB rate will almost certainly regress to human levels, he did show good ground ball rates in the minors). But back to my point: the simulator doesn't yet care too much about any of that. His success this season, though extraordinary, is based on a 7 game sample. In the same sample of games last year he walked nearly 5 times as many batters while striking out 1 fewer per nine innings resulting in a 5.08 ERA. This is to say that small samples, as we all know, can be misleading (as can W% and ERA for that matter, but look over there, a distraction!).

So the simulator sees this game as a coin flip, but Vegas has the Twins as somewhat reasonable favorites. I think there is too much uncertainty and volatility to call this a play for the Phils, despite the simulators claim of a +10.6% ROI betting the Phils +123. Yesterday I lamented the long drought between recommendations for betting on the Phils. I guess maybe we'll have to wait at least one more day.

Go Phils!

MONEY LINE: Pass
OVER / UNDER: Pass

PHI@MIN 6.13.2012

6.13.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (29-34) @ Minnesota Twins (25-35)
Pitching Matchup: Cole Hamels (8-3, 2.93 ERA) vs. P.J. Walters (2-1, 4.42 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: MIN +141
LV Over / Under Open: 8.0

It feels to be somewhere between 8 or 9 games since I last indicated the Phils were a good money line play. Emotionally it has been an exhausting run, but for your wallet it has been very good. And here I am again with the same message: the Twins look to be a good play tonight. At MIN +140 where the line is now, the simulator shows an expected return of about +3.6%, which is pretty much par for the course the last couple of weeks. Part of me is really hoping that the simulator is wrong tonight, but there are two benefits to a Phils loss: 1) monetary windfall 2) the growing possibility that RAJ is gone at the end of the season.*

The simulator really likes the under 8.0 tonight, showing the game going under 56% of the time (when you don't include the 7.1% of games ending on 8).

Go Phils!

*Candidly I wish he was gone very soon so that a savvy GM had time to get value for Cole (if they're not going to sign him), Shane and Pence. I don't have any delusions that this will happen, but I can dream.

PHI@MIN 6.12.2012

6.12.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (29-33) @ Minnesota Twins (24-35)
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Kendrick (2-5, 4.44 ERA) vs. Nick Blackburn (2-4, 7.75 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: MIN +109
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0

This morning I ran the simulation expecting Carlos Ruiz to bat 6th, Hector Luna to play first (batting 9th) and Ty Wigginton to play third. The Twins lineup for that simulation was the same as it is now. During that simulation, the Phillies won 51.3% of games indicating an expected money line of PHI -109 (MIN + 103). This aligned pretty well with where Vegas opened the line, which was PHI -116 (MIN +109). By those numbers, the simulation showed there was some value in betting on the Twins, and the market followed suit betting the line all the way to PHI +102 by about 12:45 this afternoon.

At the time I considered the line movement an over-correction, but then something funny happened at about 5:00pm when the lineups were released: Michael Martinez was in the starting lineup (expelling Hector Luna) and Carlos Ruiz was batting 7th. On the surface these changes may not seem like much (or at all funny), but they moved the Phillies' win projection from 51.3% to 48.8%. At the current money line of MIN -104 (PHI -102), a bet on the Twins to win is expected to return you about +2.4% according to the simulation. I like to check a few other simulations on the internet for reference and I almost invariably find that my simulator is somewhere in the middle. Once again that holds true, as AccuScore puts the Phillies' win probability at roughly 56% and Team Rankings has it at about 48%. By those numbers AccuScore would call the Phillies a really good play tonight and Team Rankings would call the Twins a really good play. My simulator, as I mentioned, thinks the Twins are a decent play and I'm inclined to agree with the simulator (and TR). Traditionally when the favorite changes it indicates something was wrong with the original line. Though in the MIDAS world I tend to believe the opening line is only wrong when they want it to be, I think this may be an instance where some of the original assumptions for the line ended up being wrong (evidenced by my morning and night simulations) and the line movement was not purposefully induced movement by Cantor Gaming speculation. Then again, the average of the three simulations gives the Phillies a 51% chance of winning, so if you're a wisdom of crowds person maybe you lay off the game.

The O/U of 9.0 seems pretty much dead on. Just under 10% of simulations land on the total, 44.2% go over and 46.1% go under (that's a 49/51 split when ignoring the push on 9.0).


Go Phils!
 

PHI@BAL 6.8.2012

6.8.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (28-31) @ Baltimore Orioles (32-25)
Pitching Matchup: Joe Blanton (4-6, 5.27 ERA) vs. Jake Arrieta (2-7, 5.53 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: BAL -115
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0

The simulator indicated a good amount of expected return when the line opened at BAL -115, but unfortunately at this point that is all but gone. At BAL -128 currently, the simulator estimates an expected ROI of +1.0% betting on the Orioles. That is too close to call this a recommended play.

The simulator loves the under 9.0, but I don't. I don't think the simulator does a good job adjusting for run environment for inter-league games, so you'll probably find that I ignore the O/U for all of those games this year.

Go Phils!

LAD@PHI 6.7.2012

6.7.2012 Los Angeles Dodgers (36-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-30)
Pitching Matchup: Aaron Harang (4-3, 3.90 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (8-2, 2.81 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -180
LV Over / Under Open: 7.5

The Phils try to avoid the sweep this afternoon and with Cole Hamels on the mound there is hope that they can do it. The simulation certainly has them winning a large majority of the time, but as of the current money line (PHI -188) it isn't enough to consider them a smart play. This is another game where the line movement has been all over the place. Early money on the Dodgers moved the line to PHI -174, which is almost exactly the value the sim prices the line at. Then this morning the line jumped 16 units in the other direction, up to PHI -190. From there it has bounced up and down, getting to as low as PHI -183. At the current price, LAD +176 gives you an expected return of 2.9%, which isn't great but isn't so bad either.

I initially liked the under 7.5 a lot (as did the sim), but it has since moved to 7.0 which is slightly less attractive. Maybe lay off this game completely, unless of course the ~3% expected ROI betting on the Dodgers excites you. Certainly could be a nice emotional hedge.

Go Phils!

LAD@PHI 6.6.2012

6.6.2012 Los Angeles Dodgers (35-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-29)
Pitching Matchup: Chris Capuano (7-2, 2.50 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-4, 4.02 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -110
LV Over / Under Open: 8.0

I talked extensively - and potentially illogically - yesterday about interpreting line movement. I won't go into nearly as much detail today, but there was a very early play on the Dodgers last night when the line opened, and then the line moved even more quickly back to where it started at PHI -110. And it basically remained there ever since (it's now recently changed to PHI -109). There are multiple factors that lead me to believe this is not a good play either way, despite the 5% expected return the simulator is showing in betting on the Dodgers. I don't have the time tonight to go into them all, just know that I'm recommending staying away completely.

The simulator puts the fair price O/U at 7.5o -125, so if you can get it at 7.5o -110 like I've seen at least one book, that is probably the smart play for tonight.

Go Phils!

LAD@PHI 6.5.2012

6.5.2012 Los Angeles Dodgers (34-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-28)
Pitching Matchup: Chad Billingsley (2-4, 4.09 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (0-2, 3.00 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -172
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0

There has been interesting movement in the money line for this game that I'm not quite sure what to make of yet. It opened at PHI -172, but an hour or so later dropped to PHI -167. Two hours later it jumped even more precipitously in the opposite direction to PHI -182. Since then we've seen several unit corrections upward and downward, finally settling at PHI -180. The simulator indicates the fair price line is more like PHI -177, so at the current price you're not getting any expected value in betting on the Phils.

But what to make of the line movement and its implications? As you are probably well aware, Vegas traditionally wanted to set the opening line as efficiently as possible. But in the new world of MIDAS, Cantor Gaming has stated they are willing to take a speculative position at times when setting a line. Is this one of those instances? Let us suppose MIDAS and CG are the best at determining the most accurate win/loss probabilities for games. And let us also suppose they are very good at predicting which way the market will lean based on the probabilities they set. So now let's examine two scenarios based on this game: one where CG thinks the MIDAS line will be similar to what the markets predicts and one where CG thinks the MIDAS line will differ from the market so they could potentially take a speculative position.


Initially we assumed that MIDAS and CG are good at two very important things: accurately calculating probability and inferring market reaction. If that is the case - and we have very good reasons to believe that it is - then the first scenario makes no sense based on the line movement: a quick 5 unit line movement in one direction followed fairly quickly by a 15 unit line movement in the opposite direction. But does that type of line movement support the second scenario, and if so, how?

I've discussed in the past the ease with which we can build narratives to fit any randomness, but stay with me for a minute. To move the line 5 units towards the Dodgers, a reasonably substantial bet or bets must have been placed on the Dodgers when the line opened at LAD +161. Likewise, to move the line 15 units back in the opposite direction in a single move, lots of money would have come in on the Phillies at PHI -157 after the 5 unit swing. I think the 15 unit move is very representative of the market's opinion on the game. If you look at Accuscore, they put the Phillies win probability at 73% (equates to around PHI -270), which is way beyond the current market price but is at least representative of where the line is now relative to the open. So if you're CG and you know the line will likely move towards the Phillies, and you were trying to set the line in a speculative fashion, you would probably set the line about exactly where they did at the open. But this logic doesn't explain the 5 unit initial move towards the Dodgers. Or does it? If you knew that CG was appearing to under-price the Phils to generate bets on the other side, then betting the Dodgers on open would be a smart move because you'd know CG was taking your position as well. Historically sharps are the ones who bet early to take advantage of the inefficiencies in the line, so could they have been the source of the 5 unit move? Maybe, but then wouldn't they have doubled down on that bet now that you're getting paid even more for a Dodger win (+169), thus moving the line back in the opposite direction?

Confused? I am. If you were looking for an answer, you're not going to get one. I said at the very beginning that I'm not quite sure what to make of the line movement yet. And obviously I'm still not; it's just too confusing and with limited information on the betting (how much and by whom) and CG's motives (other than to make lots of money) I'm stumped. I'm staying away from this game completely, but if I were following the narrative above, don't bet on Cliff Lee getting his first win of the season.

Go Phils!

LAD@PHI 6.4.2012

6.4.2012 Los Angeles Dodgers (33-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-27)
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw (4-3, 2.42 ERA) vs. Vance Worley (3-2, 3.07 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI +122
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0

According to the simulator the opening money line was devaluing the Phillies in the game too much, and we've seen that bear out in the market as the line has fallen to around PHI +108 depending where you look. The simulator shows that as an over-correction, putting the fair line at closer to PHI +115. Betting LAD -114 you're getting about 1.4% expected ROI, not enough for me to call it a recommended play under normal circumstances. However, I've been reading a lot lately about MIDAS at Cantor Gaming, and based on what I've read I think LAD is probably a better play than the 1.4% I mentioned earlier. How much better, I don't know, and I won't go into detail yet on why I think that as I need to do a much more methodical look into it before saying anything. If that makes you question the legitimacy of my assertions on the game, I don't blame you at all.

Go Phils!

PHI@NYM 5.30.2012

5.30.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (26-25) @ New York Mets (28-22)
Pitching Matchup: Cliff Lee (0-2, 2.82 ERA) vs. Dillon Gee (4-3, 4.92 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: NYM +132
LV Over / Under Open: 7.5

PHI@NYM 5.29.2012

5.29.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (26-24) @ New York Mets (27-22)
Pitching Matchup: Joe Blanton (4-4, 4.55 ERA) vs. Jeremy Hefner (0-2, 6.17 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: NYM +102
LV Over / Under Open: 8.5

The New York Mets lost another shortstop yesterday when Justin Turner was injured during an abbreviated run-down between first and second base. Omar Quintanilla was recalled to start in his place. Yes, that Omar Quintanilla. The guy who has failed to post a WAR above 0.0 in six major league seasons. The guy who last season in 23 plate appearances with the Rangers put up an incredible -75 wRC+. That is not a typo. Almost as incredible? The win projection for the game barely changed when swapping Quintanilla for Turner.


Despite what the projection indicates, I think this will be a fairly high scoring game. Probably very similar to yesterday's game, so maybe 8-5 or 9-6 type of game. Who will win is anyone's guess, but the sim tends to think PHI -108 is a good play if you can still get it at that. Most places though are showing NYM +109 (PHI -116), which is within a single unit of where the simulator puts it (for reference: NYM +108, PHI -115).


The sim thinks under 9.0 (the line moved to 9.0 after opening at 8.5) is a good play, but as I mentioned earlier subjectively this game seems primed to be high scoring.


Go Phils!

PHI@STL 5.25.2012

5.25.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (23-23) @ St. Louis Cardinals (25-20)
Pitching Matchup: Cliff Lee (0-2, 2.66 ERA) vs. Kyle Lohse (5-1, 2.91 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: STL +111
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0

The simulator puts the fair price line at STL +107, so if you can still get STL +111 you are possibly getting some value. However, I haven't seen anywhere that you can still get STL +111; instead the lines I've seen put it somewhere between STL +106 and STL +109. Too close to the simulation to identify either side as a good play.

The O/U started at 7.0, but the sim thought that was too low and so did the betting markets. The line is now up to 7.5, which seems right.

Go Phils!

PHI@STL 5.24.2012

5.24.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (22-23) @ St. Louis Cardinals (25-19)
Pitching Matchup: Joe Blanton (4-4, 3.74 ERA) vs. Jake Westbrook (4-3, 2.41 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: STL -143
LV Over / Under Open: 8.0

Early money has been on the Phillies, moving the line by about 10 units depending where you look. Based on the simulation, that movement makes sense, just not by the amount that it moved. The Cardinals are clearly the better team, and with surprisingly similar pitchers going tonight (see graphs below courtesy of FanGraphs), my money would be on the Cards.

Go Phils!

WAS@PHI 5.22.2012

5.22.2012 Washington National (25-17) @ Philadelphia Phillies (21-22)
Pitching Matchup: Jordan Zimmermann (2-4, 2.58 ERA) vs. Roy Halladay (4-3, 3.22 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -160
LV Over / Under Open: 6.5

The simulator really likes the Nationals tonight and fully endorses the line movement we've seen so far today. The Phillies opened as a pretty big favorite at -160, but that quickly dropped and they are now sitting somewhere around -140. The simulator thinks that is still too high, putting the fair odds closer to PHI -120 to -125. But I'm going against the simulator tonight and the 7% expected ROI taking WAS +133. No good reason other than a gut feeling. It's sometimes hard for me to give advice on these games like a portfolio manager, which if you're interested in making money, should be the mindset. But even though I'm passing doesn't mean you have to.

Go Phils!

Extra Innings: HOU -119 looks like a really good play tonight. Good luck!

WAS@PHI 5.21.2012

5.21.2012 Washington National (24-17) @ Philadelphia Phillies (21-21)
Pitching Matchup: Gio Gonzalez (5-1, 2.22 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (0-3, 5.96 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI +110
LV Over / Under Open: 8.0

PHI@CHC 5.17.2012

5.17.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (19-19) @ Chicago Cubs (15-22)
Pitching Matchup: Roy Halladay (3-3, 3.20 ERA) vs. Chris Volstad (0-5, 6.92 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: CHC +165
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0

No time for a lengthy post tonight, but that's fine because the line looks to be dead on where it is now at CHC +155 (or PHI -165). If you got it at open when it was CHC +165, there was probably some value there in betting on the Cubs, but I don't see it now.

Go Phils!

PHI@CHC 5.16.2012

5.16.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (18-19) @ Chicago Cubs (15-21)
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Kendrick (0-3, 7.32 ERA) vs. Matt Garza (2-1, 2.56 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: CHC -145
LV Over / Under Open: 7.5

Human beings love to create post hoc explanatory narratives. Sports pundits are especially keen on doing this. One of my favorites involves when a team gets a long layoff after winning a playoff series quickly, because analysts like to use it as either a positive or negative depending on how the team plays in the first game of the next series. It's either "the long layoff got them out of their groove" in the event of a bad game or "the long layoff let them get rested to come out stronger" when the team plays great to start off the next series. This isn't to suggest that these narratives fail to touch upon the truth from time to time. Rather, it is to demonstrate that narrative is nice, but it is more a reflection on the human evolutionary need to idenitfy cause and effect than a statement on the realities of the world.

If this seems like a digression, it is. But only slightly. Kyle Kendrick has never been one of my favorite pitchers. I've always felt he parlayed his luck aided rookie season into his incredulous continued existence in the major leagues, a sentiment crystallized beautifully by a Matt Schwartz tweet back in April. However, his performance this year is unlike anything we've seen from him over the last several. Some like to point to the fact that Kyle finally "got paid" and that he no longer feels the need to try hard. This idea is often linked to the contract year phenomenon: the theory that a player will outperform expectations in the final year of his contract in order to cash in on that performance when he signs a new contract. This is a topic which has been consistently debated, yet it has been mostly debunked by those who have analyzed it. Here again we see the need for explanatory narrative, especially when you consider a bad season during a contract year is typically explained as the player "wilting under the pressure to perform." So is Kyle Kendrick indifferent to his performance now because he signed a 2 year, $7+ million contract in the off season? I doubt it.

Can we find anything in the last two years that would have predicted Kyle's performance would drop precipitously in 2012? Interestingly in 2010 and 2011, Kyle was basically the exact same pitcher according to his peripherals available at Fangraphs:

Only a few things look substantially different between 2010 and 2011: Kyle's innings pitched, K rate, and his ERA. His IP went down in 2011 because about 50% of his appearances were in a relief role, whereas he was almost entirely used as a starter in 2010. But why was his ERA so different? Could a 1% change in K rate really produce that big of a difference? Not likely.

A good place to look is his Left on Base percentage (LOB%), which calculates the percentage of runners who fail to score upon reaching base. In 2010, his LOB% was 69%, but in 2011 it jumped to 76%. That might not seem like a lot, but think of it this way: in 2010 Kyle allowed about 225 runners to reach base (hits in play [hits - home runs] + walks + hbp, but ignoring runners reaching on error for simplicity). If he allowed 31% of those runners to score (1 - LOB%), then that is about 70 runs. If he allowed 24% of those runners to score (using the 2011 LOB%), then that is about 54 runs. If you were to subtract 16 runs from the 95 earned runs Kyle surrendered in 2010, his ERA would go from 4.73 to 3.95. Now I've dumbed down this analysis quite a bit, but the difference in LOB% helps to account for nearly a full run on his ERA.

The reason this is important is that LOB% can be somewhat random from year to year. In the past it was actually believed pitchers had no control of their LOB%, but the analysis behind SIERA helped show that wasn't actually true. Instead of regressing a pitcher's LOB% to a league average, it probably makes more sense to regress it to the pitcher's career average. Kendrick's career LOB% is about 72%. Do you know what it is this year? 63.5%. As I showed using the 7% difference between 2010 and 2011, that is a humongous big difference. It helps to explain a good portion of why Kyle is sporting a 7.32 ERA this year as opposed to something closer to his 4.50 career ERA (4.86 career SIERA). It also helps to explain why his ERA estimators like FIP, xFIP and SIERA aren't nearly as down on Kyle as his ERA would suggest we should be.

In fact, lets regress Kyle's 2010 and 2011 LOB% to his career norm of 72% to see what happens. As I said, he allowed 225 runners to reach base in 2010, and if 28% of those runners had scored - as opposed to 31% - he would have allowed 7 fewer runs. This equates to 88 earned runs and an ERA of 4.40. Kyle's 24% strand rate - another name for LOB% - in 2011 was better than his career average, so we know his 3.22 ERA is going to get worse. Kyle allowed 133 runners to reach base in 2011. With a strand rate of 24%, that is 32 runs, but at 28% Kyle would have allowed an extra 5 runs. This change raises his ERA to 3.63, a little less than half a run per nine innings, and now the 1.5 run difference between his 2010 and 2011 ERA has been halved. The rest of the difference came mostly from Kyle giving up less home runs, almost entirely due to the drop in fly ball rate since when he did give up fly balls they left the park at a very similar rate in both years.

So we have established that Kyle's 2010 and 2011 were actually quite similar, despite the difference in ERA, and that there didn't appear to be any trending that would suggest a blow up in 2012. So what gives? There are some other differences in 2012 compared to 2011, particularly a higher walk rate (9% from 6% in 2011) and a change in his batted ball numbers: a much higher line drive rate (26% from 19% in 2011) and a much lower ground ball rate (36% from 45% in 2011). Since line drives fall in for hits at a very high frequency, especially as compared to ground balls, that is bad news over the long term. But since Kyle has faced fewer than 100 batters this season (less than 75 of those have put the ball in play), the numbers are not yet very reliable. In fact, considering Kyle's age and the lack of any injury news/concern, we should assume moving forward his performances will resemble his career numbers a lot more than what we've seen from him so far this year, which is what ZiPS and other projection systems have told us. Granted it is the career stats of a 5th starter, a grossly overpaid one at that, but not the complete train wreck he's been early this season.

And to bring this full circle and provide a nice wrapper on it, you can come up with whatever narrative you want about Kyle Kendrick's performance. And depending what happens tonight, you'll have a new performance you can rhapsodize with purported causality. The truth is though that whatever randomness happens tonight or during Kyle's next start, his entire season will probably be pretty predictable, convenient narrative or not.

Oh right, that wrapper I mentioned. So all things considered, you'd probably think Kyle Kendrick vs. Matt Garza would be a matchup of David vs. Goliath proportions, or at least maybe Boom Goes the Dynamite guy vs. the teleprompter. I'm not usually someone who uses the old "the line is telling me something" trick, but isn't the CHC -145 line telling you something?!? That line equates to an approximate 59% probability of the Cubs winning, which superficially speaking seems way too low when KK is going up against one of the better, more underrated pitchers in the NL. And the Cubs are at home! But the simulator puts the fair price money line at closer to around CHC -120, which means there should actually be some value in betting on the Phils. Does it make me feel good recommending betting on the Phils? Yes. Does it make me feel good recommending betting on Kyle Kendrick? Not especially. In Bill Simmon's NFL playoffs betting manifesto the first rule is you never back a crappy QB on the road. Not a direct comparison, but I can't help feeling that at around 11:00pm tonight I'm going to be shaking my fist to the sky, lamenting that I actually recommended placing money on Kyle Kendrick. There are surely worse things I've done in my life...

Go Phils!

O/U note: it started at 7.5, but is now down to 7.0. The simulator puts it at a pretty even split when at 7.0: under the total 46% of the time and over 43%.

HOU@PHI 5.15.2012

5.15.2012 Houston Astros (15-20) @ Philadelphia Phillies (17-19)
Pitching Matchup: Jordan Lyles (0-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (0-1, 2.17 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -195
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0

Whenever there is a day game following a night game, I like to wait for the lineups to be posted to run the simulation. There are some lineup changes you can expect - like a change in catcher, for example - but some you won't be able to predict. Enter Brad Mills, who apparently doesn't follow the Charlie Manuel philosophy of posting his lineup card several hours before the game. Or at least he didn't today. I actually did a reasonable job of guessing who Mills would play today when I ran my pre-sims, but rarely will I get everything correct.

Anyway, not a lot of time today to provide a thorough examination of the game and line, but as you'll notice the simulator thinks the Astros are a really good play today. I mentioned last week when the line is this different than what your model/intuition/Ouija board says it should be, you are probably wrong. My intuition says the simulator is wrong and that the Phils win handily, but even so I would recommend playing the Astros today. Terrible weather in Philly today so maybe a wet field causes some shenanigans. Anything can happen.

Go Phils!

HOU@PHI 5.14.2012

5.14.2012 Houston Astros (15-19) @ Philadelphia Phillies (16-19)

Pitching Matchup: Lucas Harrell (2-2, 4.58 ERA) vs. Joe Blanton (3-3, 3.24 ERA)

LV Money Line Open: PHI -165

LV Over / Under Open: 8.5

I am not going to do much of a write-up today, so I've posted the betting predictions table  under the forecasted boxscore. If you've been reading frequently, you may remember I said I was making updates to the model and that I hoped they were improvements. So far it is hard to tell whether the money lines are more accurate, but I can say I feel the O/U odds the simulator is producing seem to be skewed low. I'm not quite sure why yet, but I'm looking into. The positive though is that it does not appear to be assymetrically biasing the teams, though it most certainly could be. I'll hopefully have it fixed - if necessary - in the next week.

Note: in the betting predictions table, "FP" stands for Fair Price, which is set based on the simulator forecast.

Go Phils!

SDG@PHI 5.11.2012

5.11.2012 San Diego Padres (11-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (14-18)
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Richard (1-4, 4.89 ERA) vs. Vance Worley (2-2, 2.84 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -165
LV Over / Under Open: 8.5

I don't know about you, but I felt pretty good yesterday not having a Phillies game to fret over. We're contemplating a new rule in my household that Phillies games only last as long as the starting pitcher is still in. Probably won't get the votes to pass, but it's on the floor for argument.

I spent the off day loading the new player forecasts into the model, and lamenting the good statistics which refuse to set the entire Phillies bullpen probabilities at replacement level. My logical and mathematically minded self understands that a few games are mostly meaningless against hundreds or thousands of innings pitched in a career, but doesn't it just feel like the Phillies bullpen situation is different? When you have a forecast which shows Kyle Kendrick is slightly more likely to give up 0 runs in an inning than 1 or more, doesn't that just feel intrinsically wrong deep in your bones?

On one hand I feel I can't responsibly recommend to anyone that they bet on the Phils until the bullpen stops pitching like they're in the SALLY league. But on the other hand you almost have to assume regression at some point and still try to play them when the price is right.

Well at least tonight doesn't appear to be one of those nights, so I can delay having to make a tough decision. In fact, tonight's money line is set in such a way that your expected return is -1.4% when betting on either SDG +145 or PHI -153. The O/U was a really strong play at 8.5, but it dropped an entire run down to 7.5. The simulator still sees that as a little high, but I don't trust the Phillies bullpen to hold the Padres to 7.5 in their 2 or 3 innings of work. That is of course a subjective opinion, which according to my disclaimer at the top of the page is apt to occur around here from time to time. It also says that subjective opinion is uneducated, so there is always that to consider.

Go Phils!

NYM@PHI 5.9.2012 UPDATE

So I haven't been able to find tonight's lineup posted anywhere yet, but three of the players I had starting in the original simulation (Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix, and Carlos Ruiz) are not, but they are available for pinch hitting if necessary. This changes somewhat significantly the win projection. I don't want to flip-flop on this, but I think the biggest issue is Cliff not having Ruiz. Lee likes to work very quickly, and doesn't usually shake off Ruiz often. Working with Schneider will likely not go as smoothly. Though Lee did pitch to Schneider during the March 27th "On Deck Series" game against the Pirates, the last regular season game Schneider caught for Lee was an August 17th game last season. Coincidence or not, it was the only game in all of August that Cliff Lee gave up any runs.

I still think (hope) the Phils win tonight, but at the 66% win projection based on the latest simulation, a PHI -186 play would net you an expected return of only 1.8%. Not exactly stellar, especially with some of the unknowns.

Go Phils!

NYM@PHI 5.9.2012

5.9.2012 New York Mets (17-13) @ Philadelphia Phillies (14-17)
Pitching Matchup: Dillon Gee (2-2, 4.50 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (0-1, 1.96 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -195
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0

It has not been a particularly enjoyable week following Phillies baseball. Though the frustrating losses had nothing to do with my lack of posting, it was nice taking a break from blogging predictions. I spent some of the week making updates to the model, which hopefully will be improvements.

One of the benefits of simulation models over power ratings is that you can more easily adjust for injuries. Trying to back out a single individual's contribution to a team's power rating is very difficult if your rating is simply an opponent adjusted scoring margin calculated from points scored data. A model such as this allows for just such an adjustment, but how about when the opposite is true: How does the model account for players coming back from injury? The short answer is that it doesn't, not implicitly anyhow. The individual player statistical projections might account for them, but not typically in the case of a short DL stint. You might have realized what (rather whom) I'm referring to with this whole line of discussion: Clifton Phifer Lee. Tonight Cliff Lee is activated from the 15 day DL and will start against Dillon Gee. A big question is whether he will be his typically dominant self. Another question is whether he'll be on a diminshed pitch count. Regardless of what Charlie says prior to the game, do you really think he's pulling Cliff Lee if it's the 8th inning of a one run game because he's just over the 80 pitch limit he wanted to keep him to? After all the struggles of the bullpen, I don't think there is any way Charlie's pulling him in that situation. So back to the intial question: how is the model accounting for all this? I'll say again, it's not, though it could. I could manually (forgive the pun) adjust downward Cliff Lee's batters faced limit so that the model will pull him from the game earlier than normal. I could also attempt to analyze the first start off the DL of a pool of similar pitchers coming back from a similar injury. I could compare their performance in this first start versus their prior performance and use this change to adjust the outcome probabilities for Cliff Lee tonight. Unfortunately I don't have a data set readily available to do this, and even if I did it might be limited by a variety of factors.

All that being said, for my own purposes in evaluating this game I'm going to assume that Cliff Lee is going to be his normal self and Charlie is going to evaluate whether or not to keep him in the game as if he didn't just come off the DL. Those may be bad assumptions, especially with the model showing Cliff averaging 7+ limit on a supposed pitch limit, so if you think they are faulty feel free to ignore my following opinion on the game (go the other way on the game if you want for exactly those reasons). And my opinion is the Phillies are a good play tonight at -195, with an estimated ROI of between 5-6%. Some of the early betting at a few sports books I looked at indicates that there some crowd agreement that the Mets are a good play, though yesterday's line moved big toward the Phillies and we know how that turned out (you're going to have to trust me that the model thought Mets at +175 last night was an amazing play).

The model sees the O/U of 7.0 as pretty high, with 58% of simulations going under 7.0 (30% going over). Normally I would say that makes the under a really good play, but I'm going to say pass on it and instead take whatever you might have wagedered on the total and put it on PHI -195.

Go Phils!