6.19.2012 Colorado Rockies (25-40) @ Philadelphia Phillies (31-37)
Pitching Matchup: Josh Outman (0-2, 8.44 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (9-3, 3.34 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -230
LV Over / Under Open: 8.0
A lot of line movement today: the Phils opened at -230, then the line fell to -205 by 10am this morning, and has since steadily climbed back toward where it opened last night. When I have observed this pattern over the last several weeks, it has seemed that the favorite wins at a far higher rate than would be expected. I must emphasize that is an assessment best characterized as subjective and based on a limited sample. The simulator puts the expected line at PHI -227, which is nearly exactly where it is at the moment (PHI -225). Neither team looks like a good play tonight.
The O/U started at 8.0, but was bet down to 7.5. The simulator has it going over 7.5 a little over 52% of the time, which equates to 7.5o -115. That seems to be the line at most of the books I've checked.
Go Phils!
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