PHI@MIN 6.14.2012

6.14.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (30-34) @ Minnesota Twins (25-36)
Pitching Matchup: Joe Blanton (5-6, 5.40 ERA) vs. Scott Diamond (5-1, 1.61 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: MIN -126
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0

Even when they win the Phils enjoy torturing their fans. There aren't many times that a 6-0 lead has proven to be so tenuous with Hamels pitching, but last night was one of those times. Something has gotten into the Phillies pitching staff, and it isn't good.

Tonight Joe Blanton faces Scott Diamond. Blanton is attempting to stop his ignominious streak of 5 consecutive games of giving up 5 earned runs or more and failing to get out of the seventh inning. In the last 50 years only 13 pitchers have had a longer streak. What does that stat mean? Absolutely nothing beyond being passably interesting, I think. Certainly the simulator doesn't care about Blanton's search for history. Nor does it care that so far this season Scott Diamond has looked like Greg Maddux in his prime. You think I'm being ridiculous? Go ahead, look at the numbers below comparing Diamond's 2012 to Maddux's 1997 (his highest WAR season):

Ok. So maybe I did exaggerate a little. Scott Diamond's 2012 probably resembles Maddux's seasons a few years later, though need I remind you Maddux was still a very effective pitcher later in his career. I am not, under any circumstances, making the claim that Scott Diamond is the next Greg Maddux. Diamond has shown very good control this year a la Maddux and has been fantastic at inducing ground balls (though his 61% GB rate will almost certainly regress to human levels, he did show good ground ball rates in the minors). But back to my point: the simulator doesn't yet care too much about any of that. His success this season, though extraordinary, is based on a 7 game sample. In the same sample of games last year he walked nearly 5 times as many batters while striking out 1 fewer per nine innings resulting in a 5.08 ERA. This is to say that small samples, as we all know, can be misleading (as can W% and ERA for that matter, but look over there, a distraction!).

So the simulator sees this game as a coin flip, but Vegas has the Twins as somewhat reasonable favorites. I think there is too much uncertainty and volatility to call this a play for the Phils, despite the simulators claim of a +10.6% ROI betting the Phils +123. Yesterday I lamented the long drought between recommendations for betting on the Phils. I guess maybe we'll have to wait at least one more day.

Go Phils!

MONEY LINE: Pass
OVER / UNDER: Pass