PHI@MIN 6.12.2012

6.12.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (29-33) @ Minnesota Twins (24-35)
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Kendrick (2-5, 4.44 ERA) vs. Nick Blackburn (2-4, 7.75 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: MIN +109
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0

This morning I ran the simulation expecting Carlos Ruiz to bat 6th, Hector Luna to play first (batting 9th) and Ty Wigginton to play third. The Twins lineup for that simulation was the same as it is now. During that simulation, the Phillies won 51.3% of games indicating an expected money line of PHI -109 (MIN + 103). This aligned pretty well with where Vegas opened the line, which was PHI -116 (MIN +109). By those numbers, the simulation showed there was some value in betting on the Twins, and the market followed suit betting the line all the way to PHI +102 by about 12:45 this afternoon.

At the time I considered the line movement an over-correction, but then something funny happened at about 5:00pm when the lineups were released: Michael Martinez was in the starting lineup (expelling Hector Luna) and Carlos Ruiz was batting 7th. On the surface these changes may not seem like much (or at all funny), but they moved the Phillies' win projection from 51.3% to 48.8%. At the current money line of MIN -104 (PHI -102), a bet on the Twins to win is expected to return you about +2.4% according to the simulation. I like to check a few other simulations on the internet for reference and I almost invariably find that my simulator is somewhere in the middle. Once again that holds true, as AccuScore puts the Phillies' win probability at roughly 56% and Team Rankings has it at about 48%. By those numbers AccuScore would call the Phillies a really good play tonight and Team Rankings would call the Twins a really good play. My simulator, as I mentioned, thinks the Twins are a decent play and I'm inclined to agree with the simulator (and TR). Traditionally when the favorite changes it indicates something was wrong with the original line. Though in the MIDAS world I tend to believe the opening line is only wrong when they want it to be, I think this may be an instance where some of the original assumptions for the line ended up being wrong (evidenced by my morning and night simulations) and the line movement was not purposefully induced movement by Cantor Gaming speculation. Then again, the average of the three simulations gives the Phillies a 51% chance of winning, so if you're a wisdom of crowds person maybe you lay off the game.

The O/U of 9.0 seems pretty much dead on. Just under 10% of simulations land on the total, 44.2% go over and 46.1% go under (that's a 49/51 split when ignoring the push on 9.0).


Go Phils!