6.6.2012 Los Angeles Dodgers (35-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-29)
Pitching Matchup: Chris Capuano (7-2, 2.50 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-4, 4.02 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -110
LV Over / Under Open: 8.0
I talked extensively - and potentially illogically - yesterday about interpreting line movement. I won't go into nearly as much detail today, but there was a very early play on the Dodgers last night when the line opened, and then the line moved even more quickly back to where it started at PHI -110. And it basically remained there ever since (it's now recently changed to PHI -109). There are multiple factors that lead me to believe this is not a good play either way, despite the 5% expected return the simulator is showing in betting on the Dodgers. I don't have the time tonight to go into them all, just know that I'm recommending staying away completely.
The simulator puts the fair price O/U at 7.5o -125, so if you can get it at 7.5o -110 like I've seen at least one book, that is probably the smart play for tonight.
Go Phils!
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