6.20.2012 Colorado Rockies (25-41) @ Philadelphia Phillies (32-27)
Pitching Matchup: Alex White (2-5, 5.56 ERA) vs. Joe Blanton (6-6, 4.93 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -143
LV Over / Under Open: 9.5
Good win last night for the Phils. Tonight they try to make it two in a row (small victories!), which will be much easier if Joe Blanton can pitch as well as he did during his last start. The simulator thinks the Rockies are a good play though, good for an 11.5% expected ROI where the line is right now (COL +139). I mentioned yesterday that the line movement I was observing seemed to suggest the Phils were really a stronger favorite than the opening line suggested. I'm seeing very similar line movement today, which could suggest the simulator is wrong about tonight. For comparison sake, AccuScore has the Phils as a 56% favorite and TeamRankings puts it at nearly 59%. An aggregation of the methods would put it at about 56%, or about PHI -132 when converted into a money line value. That would still make the Rockies a play at +139, but the ROI would go down by about half.
The simulator loves the under tonight, even at 9.0 where it is now, with 55% of simulations going under 9.0. Subjectively I actually like the over, so it would be a pass for me.
Go Phils!
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