LAD@PHI 6.5.2012

6.5.2012 Los Angeles Dodgers (34-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-28)
Pitching Matchup: Chad Billingsley (2-4, 4.09 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (0-2, 3.00 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -172
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0

There has been interesting movement in the money line for this game that I'm not quite sure what to make of yet. It opened at PHI -172, but an hour or so later dropped to PHI -167. Two hours later it jumped even more precipitously in the opposite direction to PHI -182. Since then we've seen several unit corrections upward and downward, finally settling at PHI -180. The simulator indicates the fair price line is more like PHI -177, so at the current price you're not getting any expected value in betting on the Phils.

But what to make of the line movement and its implications? As you are probably well aware, Vegas traditionally wanted to set the opening line as efficiently as possible. But in the new world of MIDAS, Cantor Gaming has stated they are willing to take a speculative position at times when setting a line. Is this one of those instances? Let us suppose MIDAS and CG are the best at determining the most accurate win/loss probabilities for games. And let us also suppose they are very good at predicting which way the market will lean based on the probabilities they set. So now let's examine two scenarios based on this game: one where CG thinks the MIDAS line will be similar to what the markets predicts and one where CG thinks the MIDAS line will differ from the market so they could potentially take a speculative position.


Initially we assumed that MIDAS and CG are good at two very important things: accurately calculating probability and inferring market reaction. If that is the case - and we have very good reasons to believe that it is - then the first scenario makes no sense based on the line movement: a quick 5 unit line movement in one direction followed fairly quickly by a 15 unit line movement in the opposite direction. But does that type of line movement support the second scenario, and if so, how?

I've discussed in the past the ease with which we can build narratives to fit any randomness, but stay with me for a minute. To move the line 5 units towards the Dodgers, a reasonably substantial bet or bets must have been placed on the Dodgers when the line opened at LAD +161. Likewise, to move the line 15 units back in the opposite direction in a single move, lots of money would have come in on the Phillies at PHI -157 after the 5 unit swing. I think the 15 unit move is very representative of the market's opinion on the game. If you look at Accuscore, they put the Phillies win probability at 73% (equates to around PHI -270), which is way beyond the current market price but is at least representative of where the line is now relative to the open. So if you're CG and you know the line will likely move towards the Phillies, and you were trying to set the line in a speculative fashion, you would probably set the line about exactly where they did at the open. But this logic doesn't explain the 5 unit initial move towards the Dodgers. Or does it? If you knew that CG was appearing to under-price the Phils to generate bets on the other side, then betting the Dodgers on open would be a smart move because you'd know CG was taking your position as well. Historically sharps are the ones who bet early to take advantage of the inefficiencies in the line, so could they have been the source of the 5 unit move? Maybe, but then wouldn't they have doubled down on that bet now that you're getting paid even more for a Dodger win (+169), thus moving the line back in the opposite direction?

Confused? I am. If you were looking for an answer, you're not going to get one. I said at the very beginning that I'm not quite sure what to make of the line movement yet. And obviously I'm still not; it's just too confusing and with limited information on the betting (how much and by whom) and CG's motives (other than to make lots of money) I'm stumped. I'm staying away from this game completely, but if I were following the narrative above, don't bet on Cliff Lee getting his first win of the season.

Go Phils!