6.4.2012 Los Angeles Dodgers (33-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-27)
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw (4-3, 2.42 ERA) vs. Vance Worley (3-2, 3.07 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI +122
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0
According to the simulator the opening money line was devaluing the Phillies in the game too much, and we've seen that bear out in the market as the line has fallen to around PHI +108 depending where you look. The simulator shows that as an over-correction, putting the fair line at closer to PHI +115. Betting LAD -114 you're getting about 1.4% expected ROI, not enough for me to call it a recommended play under normal circumstances. However, I've been reading a lot lately about MIDAS at Cantor Gaming, and based on what I've read I think LAD is probably a better play than the 1.4% I mentioned earlier. How much better, I don't know, and I won't go into detail yet on why I think that as I need to do a much more methodical look into it before saying anything. If that makes you question the legitimacy of my assertions on the game, I don't blame you at all.
Go Phils!
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