6.28.2012 Pittsburgh Pirates (39-35) @ Philadelphia Phillies (36-41)
Pitching Matchup: A.J. Burnett (8-2, 3.24 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-7, 5.24 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -103
LV Over / Under Open: 8.5
The line is at PHI +108 right now, which is basically where the simulator puts it (PHI +105). It shows that a bet on either the Pirates or the Phillies is a losing proposition. However, I actually like the Phillies today as one of those speculative lines coming out of LV. The Pirates look superficially like a decent favorite with Burnett going against Kendrick, and yet the game opened as a coin-flip. As expected, the market pushed the line towards the Pirates, exactly where you'd speculate it would move.
Since the simulator has been much more right than wrong on these matters, it probably makes sense to just stay away, but I can't help thinking the Phils have a better shot at winning this game than the sim and market are suggesting.
Go Phils!
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