6.7.2012 Los Angeles Dodgers (36-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-30)
Pitching Matchup: Aaron Harang (4-3, 3.90 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (8-2, 2.81 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -180
LV Over / Under Open: 7.5
The Phils try to avoid the sweep this afternoon and with Cole Hamels on the mound there is hope that they can do it. The simulation certainly has them winning a large majority of the time, but as of the current money line (PHI -188) it isn't enough to consider them a smart play. This is another game where the line movement has been all over the place. Early money on the Dodgers moved the line to PHI -174, which is almost exactly the value the sim prices the line at. Then this morning the line jumped 16 units in the other direction, up to PHI -190. From there it has bounced up and down, getting to as low as PHI -183. At the current price, LAD +176 gives you an expected return of 2.9%, which isn't great but isn't so bad either.
I initially liked the under 7.5 a lot (as did the sim), but it has since moved to 7.0 which is slightly less attractive. Maybe lay off this game completely, unless of course the ~3% expected ROI betting on the Dodgers excites you. Certainly could be a nice emotional hedge.
Go Phils!
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