5.15.2012 Houston Astros (15-20) @ Philadelphia Phillies (17-19)
Pitching Matchup: Jordan Lyles (0-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee (0-1, 2.17 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -195
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0
Whenever there is a day game following a night game, I like to wait for the lineups to be posted to run the simulation. There are some lineup changes you can expect - like a change in catcher, for example - but some you won't be able to predict. Enter Brad Mills, who apparently doesn't follow the Charlie Manuel philosophy of posting his lineup card several hours before the game. Or at least he didn't today. I actually did a reasonable job of guessing who Mills would play today when I ran my pre-sims, but rarely will I get everything correct.
Anyway, not a lot of time today to provide a thorough examination of the game and line, but as you'll notice the simulator thinks the Astros are a really good play today. I mentioned last week when the line is this different than what your model/intuition/Ouija board says it should be, you are probably wrong. My intuition says the simulator is wrong and that the Phils win handily, but even so I would recommend playing the Astros today. Terrible weather in Philly today so maybe a wet field causes some shenanigans. Anything can happen.
Go Phils!
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