Pitching Matchup: Cole Hamels (3-1, 2.73 ERA) vs. Brandon Beachy (2-1, 1.05 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: ATL -123
LV Over / Under Open: 6.5
I keep hearing pundits say that starting with this three game series in Atlanta we'll finally get a better idea of what the Phillies actually are this year. The contrarian in me likes to point out that any early season three game series is just as representative of what the Phillies are as this series will be. Now I'm afforded the luxury of not having to come up with things to say over the air, most of which is unscripted, so it is easy for me from my couch (no armchair for me) to critique the nonsense that comes out of Sarge's mouth. Regardless of whether this series makes a good statement on the quality of the Phillies, it can help them move up in the NL East standings.
With Cole Hamels going tonight the Phils have a good opportunity to start the series off with a win. The simulator shows a ncie line for Cole tonight, having him scatter 6 hits over nearly 7 innings of work, with a projected ERA of 3.44. Unfortunately, the sim likes the very underrated Brandon Beachy even better. Maybe it's because he was never considered one of the Braves' top pitching prospects: ranking below Teheran, Minor, Vizcaino, Kimbrel, Delgado and Perez in Baseball America's 2011 list despite striking out 12+ batters per 9IP in AA in 2010 (9.5 K/9 in AAA in 2010).* Whatever the reason, Beachy's excellent pitching success has gone mostly unnoticed. And in case you are one of those same people I'm talking about who don't know anything about Beachy, let me drop some knowledge on you. Last year in 141 2/3 IP, he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings, which would have ranked best (yes, best!) in baseball had he pitched another 29 innings to qualify and maintained the same rate. He had an ERA of 3.68, but even more amazing was that his FIP (3.19), xFIP (3.16), and SIERA (2.94) all suggested he pitched much better than his ERA reflected. His SIERA would have ranked him 5th in baseball, even better than the reigning AL Cy Young and MVP winner.
I needed to break paragraph or I might have gone on talking about Brandon Beachy for a while longer. Too much longer and you might have started to question whether this really is a Phillies blog. I assure you it is, but all of that talk had a purpose. I think it helps explain that despite his success, bettors are still doubting Beachy and going for the big name in Cole Hamels. The line tonight opened at ATL -123 and dropped across the board to around -117/-118. The simulator has the money line at ATL -132, which would suggest a return of just over 5% if you decide to bet the game at -118 (a little better return if you can get it at -117). That's decent value, though potentially the one monkey wrench in all of this - besides trying to predict whether a couple of players on the Braves are going to play - is evaluating the relevance of Beachy's middling performance against the Phils. He just wasn't his dominant self against them last year with an ERA basically a run higher and 3.5 fewer Ks per 9IP. Surprisingly one of the players that hit Beachy the hardest was Raul Ibanez, who obviously isn't on the Phils anymore. Howard also had some success off of Beachy, hitting a 3-run HR off him on May 13th last year, but overall his performance against Beachy wasn't spectacular. Besides Ibanez and Howard, much of the lineup tonight is the same as last year's, since Utley also missed two of the four games in 2011 when Beachy pitched (and didn't have success off of him when he was in the lineup). I'm sure it sounds like I'm flip-flopping on which way to play this, especially after telling you to stay away from yesterday's game. I guess what I'll say is that if the chance for a 5% expected return gets you excited, then go ahead and bet on Atlanta. There were much better plays I gave you in the last several days - the April 27th Cubs play and the April 28th Phillies play to name two - but this one is decent enough that I wouldn't call you crazy if you played it.
The O/U of 6.5 seems almost perfect, with the game going under 51.6% of the time. I don't have a subjective opinion on the total tonight, so do whatever tickles your fancy, but I'd stay away.
Go Phils!
*BA went as far as to say that in his most rosiest projection, it was hard to see him as much better than a back of the rotation starter. Look, I'm not trying to lambast Baseball America for their evaluation; their thoughts on Beachy echoed the consensus at the time. The guy was an undrafted free agent out of Indiana Wesleyan who scouts said had three decent pitches but nothing that wowed you. Scouting is a tough business, and there are other reasons beyond talent for why a guy succeeds or fail.
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