5.29.2012 Philadelphia Phillies (26-24) @ New York Mets (27-22)
Pitching Matchup: Joe Blanton (4-4, 4.55 ERA) vs. Jeremy Hefner (0-2, 6.17 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: NYM +102
LV Over / Under Open: 8.5
The New York Mets lost another shortstop yesterday when Justin Turner was injured during an abbreviated run-down between first and second base. Omar Quintanilla was recalled to start in his place. Yes, that Omar Quintanilla. The guy who has failed to post a WAR above 0.0 in six major league seasons. The guy who last season in 23 plate appearances with the Rangers put up an incredible -75 wRC+. That is not a typo. Almost as incredible? The win projection for the game barely changed when swapping Quintanilla for Turner.
Despite what the projection indicates, I think this will be a fairly high scoring game. Probably very similar to yesterday's game, so maybe 8-5 or 9-6 type of game. Who will win is anyone's guess, but the sim tends to think PHI -108 is a good play if you can still get it at that. Most places though are showing NYM +109 (PHI -116), which is within a single unit of where the simulator puts it (for reference: NYM +108, PHI -115).
The sim thinks under 9.0 (the line moved to 9.0 after opening at 8.5) is a good play, but as I mentioned earlier subjectively this game seems primed to be high scoring.
Go Phils!
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