SDG@PHI 5.11.2012

5.11.2012 San Diego Padres (11-21) @ Philadelphia Phillies (14-18)
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Richard (1-4, 4.89 ERA) vs. Vance Worley (2-2, 2.84 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: PHI -165
LV Over / Under Open: 8.5

I don't know about you, but I felt pretty good yesterday not having a Phillies game to fret over. We're contemplating a new rule in my household that Phillies games only last as long as the starting pitcher is still in. Probably won't get the votes to pass, but it's on the floor for argument.

I spent the off day loading the new player forecasts into the model, and lamenting the good statistics which refuse to set the entire Phillies bullpen probabilities at replacement level. My logical and mathematically minded self understands that a few games are mostly meaningless against hundreds or thousands of innings pitched in a career, but doesn't it just feel like the Phillies bullpen situation is different? When you have a forecast which shows Kyle Kendrick is slightly more likely to give up 0 runs in an inning than 1 or more, doesn't that just feel intrinsically wrong deep in your bones?

On one hand I feel I can't responsibly recommend to anyone that they bet on the Phils until the bullpen stops pitching like they're in the SALLY league. But on the other hand you almost have to assume regression at some point and still try to play them when the price is right.

Well at least tonight doesn't appear to be one of those nights, so I can delay having to make a tough decision. In fact, tonight's money line is set in such a way that your expected return is -1.4% when betting on either SDG +145 or PHI -153. The O/U was a really strong play at 8.5, but it dropped an entire run down to 7.5. The simulator still sees that as a little high, but I don't trust the Phillies bullpen to hold the Padres to 7.5 in their 2 or 3 innings of work. That is of course a subjective opinion, which according to my disclaimer at the top of the page is apt to occur around here from time to time. It also says that subjective opinion is uneducated, so there is always that to consider.

Go Phils!