So I haven't been able to find tonight's lineup posted anywhere yet, but three of the players I had starting in the original simulation (Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix, and Carlos Ruiz) are not, but they are available for pinch hitting if necessary. This changes somewhat significantly the win projection. I don't want to flip-flop on this, but I think the biggest issue is Cliff not having Ruiz. Lee likes to work very quickly, and doesn't usually shake off Ruiz often. Working with Schneider will likely not go as smoothly. Though Lee did pitch to Schneider during the March 27th "On Deck Series" game against the Pirates, the last regular season game Schneider caught for Lee was an August 17th game last season. Coincidence or not, it was the only game in all of August that Cliff Lee gave up any runs.
I still think (hope) the Phils win tonight, but at the 66% win projection based on the latest simulation, a PHI -186 play would net you an expected return of only 1.8%. Not exactly stellar, especially with some of the unknowns.
Go Phils!
No comments:
Post a Comment