Pitching Matchup: Roy Halladay (3-2, 1.95 ERA) vs. Tommy Hanson (3-2, 3.00 ERA)
LV Money Line Open: ATL +105
LV Over / Under Open: 6.5*
As expected, yesterday featured two very good pitching performances from Cole Hamels and Brandon Beachy. Luckily for the Phils they were able to get a couple runs off of Venters and win the game. And when I said "luckily", that's truly what I mean, as the Phillies scored a run on a past ball strike out. We cannot say with any certainty what would have happened during Hunter Pence's at bat with Mayberry on third and Rollins on first - despite Tom McCarthy's proclivity to make those kinds of assertions - but it is possible there is a much different ending had that ball not gotten past McCann.
Tonight should feature another excellent pitching matchup, with Roy Halladay facing off against Tommy Hanson. I've always felt that the media overrates Tommy Hanson, but he is still a good pitcher who has been above average nearly every year according to ERA and pretty much all of the ERA estimators. In fact, the most interesting thing about Tommy Hanson might be how his actual results (ERA) mirror so closely his expected defense independent results (FIP). In 2010 his ERA was 3.33 and his FIP was 3.31. In 2011 his ERA was 3.60 and his FIP was 3.67. And so far this year his ERA is 3.00 and his FIP is 3.14. Pretty interesting if you ask me.
Roy Halladay on the other hand has shown a knack for finishing with an ERA better than his FIP, sporting an ERA more than 0.2 runs better than his FIP in 3 of the last 4 seasons. That one exception year was 2011, and that the "trend" has continued this season. The biggest reason being that strike out rate has a significant influence on the ERA estimators, and as you're probably aware despite the relative lack of coverage (here, here, here, here, and here), Halladay has shown a decline in K rate (and fast ball velocity) in 2012.** What does all this mean for tonight? It probably doesn't mean anything more than what has already been factored into Halladay's forecast for the rest of the year. And it seems the model has already done a decent job of accounting for Halladay's performance changes, with his expected K/9 at just under 7.0 for the game tonight (down from 9+ values in the prior 2 games, though part of that is due to the competition).
For those of you who have been reading regularly, you know the model has indicated you should bet against Halladay in his last two starts. The game against the Padres was too close to call a "recommended" play, but the Cubs game was a strong recommend. As you probably know, the Phils lost both of those games. Could they possibly lose a third consecutive Halladay start? I bet it would suprise you to know that if we were to go back to the day of the Padres game and estimate the probability the Phillies would lose Halladay's next three starts, it's somewhere around 15%. I'm sure that sounds very wrong; in fact, you're most likely thinking that Halladay's team has almost certainly never lost three consecutive games he started, so the probability is 0% (or close to it). But I assure you that it's true (approximately speaking). Tonight the sim puts the probability at 52.1% that the Phillies lose, and with a current line of ATL +105, you're expected almost a 7% return in betting on the Braves. We've talked before about the premium bettors pay to bet on Halladay; I've noticed it is somewhere around a $10 swing in the line. This premium holds true tonight. So can I really be recommending you put your money against Halladay again? Three times in a row? Nah....I can't do it.
Go Phils!
*Pass on the O/U tonight, as its very close to a 50/50 proposition (51.6% under to be exact)
**I recognize the irony of discussing Halladay's early season "struggles" while cheekily inferring it's overblown
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