There were two lineup changes of note: for the Phillies Freddy Galvis will start at 2B instead of Pete Orr and Eric Hinske will start in LF for the Braves in place of Jason Heyward who is resting a right oblique strain. These changes did adjust the simulation a bit: the Braves now win 54.3% of simulations (was 56.9%) and the game goes under 6.5 about 53.9% of the time (was 51.6%). A 54.3% win rate equates to a money line of ATL -119, so your expected return is somewhere around 3.5% taking ATL -111. In my full post earlier today I didn't make a definitive play recommendation, though I said ATL -118 was reasonable. That was when your expected return was around 5% though. With even less expected return now, I have to label this game a pass, even though subjectively I still see some value to taking Atlanta.
Go Phils!
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