Pitching Matchup: Chris Volstad vs. Vance Worley
LV Money Line Open: PHI -162
LV Over / Under Open: 7.5
Since my readership is extremely limited, it probably didn't affect very many people when I didn't post a game preview yesterday. To those that it did hurt, I apologize.
As for tonight's game, I won't be providing much commentary, other than to say that the simulation puts the line around PHI -148 and that is a bit off from the current Vegas lines (anywhere from -172 to -180). So what's the reason for the discrepancy? I think the pre-season projections for Vance Worley were possibly too bearish and Chris Volstad has had a much worse start to the season than forecasted. Add to that Volstad has had almost no success against the Phillies, being lit up for 15 runs (5 HRs) in 9 2/3 innings last year over two starts. 2010 was a little better, giving up 16 runs (5 HRs) over 21 innings in four starts. That equates to an ERA of just over 9.00 against the Phillies in the last two years, with 10 HRs surrendered. I warn about small samples a lot, but I think this is an instance where for whatever reason Volstad turns into Deron Spink during the Home Run Derby when he faces the Phils. Past history versus particular teams is not built into the model (for good reasons), but factoring it in mentally can sometimes be important. I think this is one of those cases, so I'm going against the simulation here to say that I don't believe the Cubs are a good play tonight. Just say no to making a wager on either side.
The simulation went over 7.5 about 55% of the time, which isn't really a glowing endorsement of betting the over either. Maybe just sit this one out entirely tonight.
Go Phils!
No comments:
Post a Comment