PHI@SDG 4.22.2012

First game in the series where my projection and the Vegas line differ fairly significantly. Vegas has the Padres as the favorite (around -106, which equates to somewhere just under 52% win percentage) whereas my simulation puts the line at SDG + 118.

The O/U seems to be pretty dead on at 6.5, with it going under that 52.6% of the time.

I think the error projection is pretty bearish for the Phils with Wigginton at 3rd and Thome at 1st. Who knows, that might be the difference in the game and a reason to mentally adjust the Phillies win projection slightly downward. Let's hope we're not talking tomorrow about another Wigginton error potentially costing a game.

Go Phils!