Pitching Matchup: Kyle Kendrick vs. Wade Miley
LV Money Line Open: ARI -115.0
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0
Well don't get too excited, but assuming you're awake and not using your time for something more enjoyable like sleeping, you might actually see some runs tonight. Real live Phillies runs too! After seeing O/U values hover around 5 or 6 for the last four days (above avg pitching + below avg offense + Petco = ocular bleeding), tonight I've seen it as high as 9.5 at some sports books. For comparison, my simulation puts it at 9.0 with the O/U split being 45.6%/44.8%.
After seeing yesterday's money line differ substantially from Vegas (you win again, Vegas), we're back to it being pretty much dead on. My sim puts the ML at ARI -116; the three books I looked at varied between -116 on the low end and -120 on the high end. Since the Phils seem to consistenly struggle against young arms they've never seen before, I'd be surprised if they put up as many runs as the simulation indicates. Which means maybe Vegas is right and my sim is undervaluing the Diamondbacks very slightly. I'm hoping I'm wrong, which luckily for all us Phillies fans happens to be a lot.
Go Phils!
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