4.30.2012 Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching Matchup: Chris Volstad vs. Vance Worley
LV Money Line Open: PHI -162
LV Over / Under Open: 7.5
Since my readership is extremely limited, it probably didn't affect very many people when I didn't post a game preview yesterday. To those that it did hurt, I apologize.
As for tonight's game, I won't be providing much commentary, other than to say that the simulation puts the line around PHI -148 and that is a bit off from the current Vegas lines (anywhere from -172 to -180). So what's the reason for the discrepancy? I think the pre-season projections for Vance Worley were possibly too bearish and Chris Volstad has had a much worse start to the season than forecasted. Add to that Volstad has had almost no success against the Phillies, being lit up for 15 runs (5 HRs) in 9 2/3 innings last year over two starts. 2010 was a little better, giving up 16 runs (5 HRs) over 21 innings in four starts. That equates to an ERA of just over 9.00 against the Phillies in the last two years, with 10 HRs surrendered. I warn about small samples a lot, but I think this is an instance where for whatever reason Volstad turns into Deron Spink during the Home Run Derby when he faces the Phils. Past history versus particular teams is not built into the model (for good reasons), but factoring it in mentally can sometimes be important. I think this is one of those cases, so I'm going against the simulation here to say that I don't believe the Cubs are a good play tonight. Just say no to making a wager on either side.
The simulation went over 7.5 about 55% of the time, which isn't really a glowing endorsement of betting the over either. Maybe just sit this one out entirely tonight.
Go Phils!
4.28.2012 Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching Matchup: Randy Wells vs. Joe Blanton
LV Money Line Open: PHI -150
LV Over / Under Open: 8.5
It actually happened: Roy Halladay lost two straight games. I was dreading this immensely, not so much because it meant that the Phils lost another game, but more so because of the "What's Wrong With Roy?" articles that are sure to follow. If you thought chatter about his diminished velocity was overdone, be prepared for triple the volume of articles now. All of this isn't to suggest that there is nothing wrong with Halladay, but I think Bill Baer made an excellent argument the other day why we shouldn't be concerned yet.
Just as I mentioned yesterday I thought there was a lot of value to betting on the Cubs, I think the opposite is true today: there should value in betting on the Phils. People are down on the Phillies right now, mostly for good reasons, but probably overly so. The human mind is extremely biased by recent events (or things), so the Halladay loss plus the Phillies offensive struggles plus Joe Blanton's last outing are all pushing the line toward the Cubs (down to PHI -140 most places). The model is certainly influenced by recent events, but that influence is of the Bayesian variety. This doesn't mean the model is right and bettors are wrong, but past history shows that there are many baseball stats that don't start to be reliable until about 150 plate appearances, and we ain't there yet. So the pre-season forecasts still represent the majority of the statistical inputs. Joe Blanton pitched reasonably well last outing and definitely better than his pitching line suggested (damn Luck Dragons!). I'm thinking he bounces back today and the Phils win.
The O/U seems to be set pretty dead on, with 52.5% of sims going under 8.5 (47.5% going over for the mathematically challenged). I don't see much value in betting either way, so stick with taking the Phils at -140 and I think you'll be happy that you did.
Go Phils!
Just saw the official lineups posted and John Mayberry is not in the lineup. After accouting for the change the Phillies won 70.1% of sims (up from 68.2%) equating to a money line of about PHI -234. Who knew Charlie would put out an optomized lineup?
The game went over 7.0 about 46% of the time (under 43%), which is very similar to the what I ran this morning.
Go Phils!
4.27.2012 Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching Matchup: Paul Maholm vs. Roy Halladay
LV Money Line Open: PHI -260
LV Over / Under Open: 7.0
So what can we glean from 20 runs in the last 19 innings? Probably not a whole lot, except to say that over the long run the Phils will likely be what we thought they were. Meaning that the 2.7 runs per game over the first 16, though more representative of the Phils longterm offensive outlook than the 6.7 in the last 3, is still not what we should expect moving foward. My simulator pegged the Phils offensive output at about 4 runs per game over the entire season, which I think is still likely around where they finish. It's definitely somewhat dependent on whether (and when) Utley and Howard come back this year, but even on the low end it is hard to foresee them scoring much less than about 3.5 runs per game over the long haul. With their pitching staff - and again this is dependent on health - 3.5 runs per game should be enough to hover around .500. It is hard to conceive 81 wins getting them into the playoffs, but maintaining .500 baseball until the return of Utley and Howard should be enough to make a playoff push at the end. It's a sad commentary that we're talking about a $170+ million team maintaining .500 baseball, but as Charlies says: what it is, is what it is.
The Phils are scary favorites in today's game. The kind of favorite that gets us Phillies fans who haven't shed our dire skepticism of years past to think of all the reasons why they lose to the Cubs. Paul Maholm isn't typically the type of pitcher that strikes fear in the hearts of opposing fans (or lineups), but barring one pretty poor outing in 2010, Maholm has had his way with the Phillies. Does that mean anything for today's game? Almost certainly not, as the team as it is currently constructed bares little resemblance to the teams of 2008 and 2009 which Maholm dominated. But again, some of us Phils fans just love to look for the negatives.
On the positive side, I think losing two in a row might unhinge Halladay in the same way that walking three straight batters probably did against the Padres. Combined together, those two things might be a certain sign of the apocalypse. So although I laughed off May 21st 2011, I might start thinking about watching a few episodes of Doomsday Preppers before December 21st 2012.
The projection is a little less certain that the Phils win than Vegas is, putting the line at PHI -214. However, I have seen the line drop today most places to PHI -240 (though one place has it at -270), so it seems most betters are also in agreement that it was a little high on open. Bettors pay a premium to bet on Halladay (which is why I think it started at -260), though I think -240 or -250 would have been a more reasonable place to start as there was a lot of expected value to taking the Cubs.
The O/U opened at either 7.0 or 7.5 depending on where I looked this morning, but now the same sites are showing 7.0 as the open. One book dropped the O/U to 6.5 due to early betting on the under. I personally would have set it at 7.0 and the projection shows that is about right, with the game going over 7.0 about 47% of the sims (under 42%).
One final note is that the strike out totals for the starting pitchers are higher than I would have expected. As I mentioned the other day, I've been trying to model forecasted splits more accurately, which I believe is the cause of the seemingly high strike out totals. I don't know if the sim is wrong due to a flaw in methodology, but the K values definitely seem to high to me (especially for Maholm). As a comparison, I ran a sim which didn't account for batter/pitcher splits and Maholm had 4.5 Ks per sim and Halladay had about 7.5 over about the same IP as shown above. I think those appear more reasonable, and may be one reason to mentally adjust the total upward slightly and bet on the over 7.0. The non-split simulation put the line at PHI -233, more in line with what the sports books are showing. Either way, there seems to be some value to be had on this game in betting the OVER 7.0 and taking the Cubs. It could also be an emotional hedge for Phils fans, though the enjoyment of a single Phils win is probably not worth $240.
Go Phils!
4.25.2012 Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Cole Hamels vs. Trevor Cahill
LV Money Line Open: ARI -103
LV Over / Under Open: 8.0
Not a ton of time for analysis today as the game is about to start. Arizona opened as the favorite but that quickly changed and now the line is anywhere between ARI +106 to +108. The simulation agrees that the Phils should be favored, pegging the line closer to +115. Maybe there is some value today in betting on the Phils, who knows?
The O/U started at 8o* -101, but dropped to 8.0o +110 or +120. The simulation sees 8.0 as too high as well, with the game going under 8 runs 49.5% of the time (over 42.9%).
Go Phils!
*For those unfamiliar with this O/U notation, sports books will choose to change the payout associated with betting each side of the line before changing the actual O/U value
4.24.2012 Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Vance Worley vs. Josh Collmenter
LV Money Line Open: ARI +105
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0
I regrettably indicated you might well witness Phillies runs yesterday, but I'm guessing for all most of you on the East Coast that wasn't true. I certainly didn't, deciding sleep was a better option when the score was 8-0 Arizona. Now the Phils did end up scoring five runs, though they were more stat padders than anything (I can't help but think of Bobby Abreu) as the Phils were never really a threat to win the game.
Tonight it is Vance Worley's turn to try to end the losing streak when he faces Josh "Wizard" Collmenter. The Wiz, as I like to call him, somehow manages to be effective despite mediocre/bad stuff (K/9 2011: 5.83) and the inability to induce ground balls (GB% 2011: 33.3). His ERA last year (3.38) outpaced his peripherals (FIP: 3.8, SIERA: 4.14), but he was still better than league average almost any way you look at it. That is largely due to his ability (skill?) to get his fly balls to stay in the park; 14.9% of batted balls were of the popup variety, and his HR per fly ball rate was only 7.7%. Both of those are way better than league average, though they're most likely unsustainable over the long term: this year his HR/FB rate is 24%, though that's probably also unsustainable just in the opposite direction. The Wiz seems somewhat comparable to Ted Lilly in a few areas, albeit with fewer Ks. I imagine Arizona would be perfectly fine if Collmenter had a similar career to Lilly.
Vanimal, Worley Bird, Vance Vance Revolution, [insert inane nickname here] continues to strike out a very high percentage of batters he faces, despite posting an extremely low swinging strike percentage. His K/9 rate is up this year to nearly 10 from 8.1 in 2011 despite actually inducing swinging strikes less often. Maybe Vance is the true Wizard, using Obi Wan's mindtrick to get helpless batters to simply watch strike three on the outside corner:
Vance: You will not swing at borderline strikes.
Helpless Moron: I will not swing at borderline strikes. I like your glasses.
Getting a consistent Vegas line for this game was difficult today. Depending on where I looked, I saw both the Phils and Dbacks favored when it opened. Personally I think the DBacks should be the favorite in this game, probably somewhere around ARI -105 to -110. The simulation puts it at ARI -101, but I think that's off. I've been working on more accurately modeling splits lately (pretty easy to get historical splits, not so much projected splits), and this is obviously subjective, but I don't think the model is properly accounting for what I see as a heavy platoon advantage in this game for the DBacks. Arizona has some serious mashers in their lineup against right handed pitching (whereas the Phils are somewhat anemic against righties as currently constructed), and with the 90+ degree heat the roof will be open so the ball will be flying. I fully expect Paul Goldschmidt to hit a ball that won't land until Utley is back in the lineup.
The simulation has the game going under 9.0 runs 48% of the time (over 42%). Again, I think the sim is probably somewhat wrong here, as I would have put the O/U at 9.5.
Go Phils!
4.23.2012 Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Kendrick vs. Wade Miley
LV Money Line Open: ARI -115.0
LV Over / Under Open: 9.0
Well don't get too excited, but assuming you're awake and not using your time for something more enjoyable like sleeping, you might actually see some runs tonight. Real live Phillies runs too! After seeing O/U values hover around 5 or 6 for the last four days (above avg pitching + below avg offense + Petco = ocular bleeding), tonight I've seen it as high as 9.5 at some sports books. For comparison, my simulation puts it at 9.0 with the O/U split being 45.6%/44.8%.
After seeing yesterday's money line differ substantially from Vegas (you win again, Vegas), we're back to it being pretty much dead on. My sim puts the ML at ARI -116; the three books I looked at varied between -116 on the low end and -120 on the high end. Since the Phils seem to consistenly struggle against young arms they've never seen before, I'd be surprised if they put up as many runs as the simulation indicates. Which means maybe Vegas is right and my sim is undervaluing the Diamondbacks very slightly. I'm hoping I'm wrong, which luckily for all us Phillies fans happens to be a lot.
Go Phils!
First game in the series where my projection and the Vegas line differ fairly significantly. Vegas has the Padres as the favorite (around -106, which equates to somewhere just under 52% win percentage) whereas my simulation puts the line at SDG + 118.
The O/U seems to be pretty dead on at 6.5, with it going under that 52.6% of the time.
I think the error projection is pretty bearish for the Phils with Wigginton at 3rd and Thome at 1st. Who knows, that might be the difference in the game and a reason to mentally adjust the Phillies win projection slightly downward. Let's hope we're not talking tomorrow about another Wigginton error potentially costing a game.
Go Phils!
Similar projection to yesterday's game, which isn't surprising with good pitchers going and these anemic lineups. 56.7% of the time the Phils win according to the simulation, which puts the Money Line at approximately -131 (or around +131 if you're betting on San Diego). For reference, the three Vegas MLs I looked at were all around +132 to +135, so it doesn't look like either play has much value. The Vegas O/U is 5.5, which according to the projection is a little high, with about 59% of the time the game going under 5.5 total runs.
Go Phils!
