Note: the play-in round is now technically the 1st round, so the 2nd round is actually the first game played for each of these teams, which is why each team has a 100% probability of making it into the 2nd round.
| Team | 2nd Rnd | 3rd Rnd | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Champ | Win |
| Ohio St | 100.0% | 98.8% | 83.7% | 62.6% | 48.9% | 31.5% | 21.8% |
| Kansas | 100.0% | 97.3% | 76.6% | 57.7% | 41.0% | 28.4% | 15.5% |
| Duke | 100.0% | 98.2% | 86.3% | 56.0% | 40.2% | 23.3% | 14.9% |
| Pittsburgh | 100.0% | 94.6% | 76.5% | 47.6% | 31.8% | 16.7% | 7.3% |
| Texas | 100.0% | 88.0% | 71.6% | 35.0% | 23.1% | 11.9% | 6.9% |
| San Diego St | 100.0% | 92.8% | 72.1% | 49.9% | 21.3% | 9.7% | 5.0% |
| Purdue | 100.0% | 91.7% | 68.1% | 42.5% | 19.6% | 10.9% | 4.3% |
| Kentucky | 100.0% | 89.0% | 62.8% | 23.7% | 14.7% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| BYU | 100.0% | 85.8% | 57.6% | 37.0% | 17.9% | 7.8% | 2.8% |
| Notre Dame | 100.0% | 90.7% | 64.8% | 34.7% | 14.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% |
| Louisville | 100.0% | 86.7% | 59.4% | 22.6% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Syracuse | 100.0% | 90.0% | 61.7% | 34.4% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Wisconsin | 100.0% | 55.4% | 33.1% | 16.7% | 10.1% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Florida | 100.0% | 89.5% | 63.3% | 32.6% | 13.7% | 5.1% | 1.6% |
| North Carolina | 100.0% | 89.3% | 52.6% | 29.3% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Utah St | 100.0% | 62.9% | 29.8% | 13.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Washington | 100.0% | 72.1% | 37.1% | 19.6% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Belmont | 100.0% | 44.6% | 24.2% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Connecticut | 100.0% | 80.8% | 45.0% | 19.4% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Gonzaga | 100.0% | 57.2% | 23.7% | 12.0% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Cincinnati | 100.0% | 54.3% | 28.4% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Illinois | 100.0% | 50.5% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| UNLV | 100.0% | 49.5% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Vanderbilt | 100.0% | 57.7% | 23.0% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| West Virginia | 100.0% | 51.8% | 18.3% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
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