BCS Conference POAP Ratings through December 28th, 2011

Top 25 SEC Players (through Dec 13, 2011)

College Basketball Top 25 SEC Players

Predicted MLB Playoff Matchups

As I have felt it necessary to update this site with the daily changes in playoff probability for each team, I thought it would also be interesting to update what the likely matchups will be when the post season arrives. I have mentioned in a prior post that the most probable World Series matchup is the Phillies vs. the Yankees, and that remains true today according to my calculations (23.2% of sims). One of the least probable - at least of the matchups which actually occurred once during the 100,000 simulations - is a rematch of last year's World Series (0.1% of sims). Considering San Fran is now 4 games out of the division lead and with their playoff prospects plummeting every day - down 32.8% in the last 7 days - it is very possible they do not even make the playoffs. So maybe 1 in 1000 isn't so far off.

Numbers in parentheses represent the probability of the team winning the matchup.

MLB Standings (updated through games of 9/11/2011)

Relative Ratings Applied to MLB

As can be found at places like coolstandings or Baseball Prospectus, I also have a methodology - using the Relative Rating method - which calculates the probability a team will make the playoffs. Regardless of the method (standard pythagorean, PECOTA, etc), you can see from clicking on the links and examining the table below, we all come to pretty much the same conclusion: we probably need some kind of division realignment.

Anyway, below you will find my version of the standings ("PWR" is the team's relative rating):

What I also thought would be interesting was to take the method a step further to determine the probability each team has of advancing through the playoffs and ultimately winning the World Series. As popular consensus suggests, a series of Phillies v. Yankees or Phillies v. Red Sox is the most likely matchup, with the Phillies having the best probablility of making it at 53% (roughly 1-1 odds). However, the Yankees at the moment seem to have a slight edge to win it all, with a 32% probability compared to the Phillies 29%. For simplicity (and statistical confidence) sake, they are both likely considered 2-1 odds to win it, which I believe aligns with the betting world.

NCAA Tournament 2011 Odds

The following table shows the 25 teams with the best probability of winning the NCAA tournament based on my relative ratings and simulating the bracket one million times:

Note: the play-in round is now technically the 1st round, so the 2nd round is actually the first game played for each of these teams, which is why each team has a 100% probability of making it into the 2nd round.

Team	2nd Rnd	3rd Rnd	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Champ	Win
Ohio St	100.0%	98.8%	83.7%	62.6%	48.9%	31.5%	21.8%
Kansas	100.0%	97.3%	76.6%	57.7%	41.0%	28.4%	15.5%
Duke	100.0%	98.2%	86.3%	56.0%	40.2%	23.3%	14.9%
Pittsburgh	100.0%	94.6%	76.5%	47.6%	31.8%	16.7%	7.3%
Texas	100.0%	88.0%	71.6%	35.0%	23.1%	11.9%	6.9%
San Diego St	100.0%	92.8%	72.1%	49.9%	21.3%	9.7%	5.0%
Purdue	100.0%	91.7%	68.1%	42.5%	19.6%	10.9%	4.3%
Kentucky	100.0%	89.0%	62.8%	23.7%	14.7%	6.8%	3.5%
BYU	100.0%	85.8%	57.6%	37.0%	17.9%	7.8%	2.8%
Notre Dame	100.0%	90.7%	64.8%	34.7%	14.5%	7.3%	2.6%
Louisville	100.0%	86.7%	59.4%	22.6%	11.9%	6.0%	2.1%
Syracuse	100.0%	90.0%	61.7%	34.4%	11.9%	4.7%	2.1%
Wisconsin	100.0%	55.4%	33.1%	16.7%	10.1%	4.6%	1.7%
Florida	100.0%	89.5%	63.3%	32.6%	13.7%	5.1%	1.6%
North Carolina	100.0%	89.3%	52.6%	29.3%	9.7%	3.6%	1.5%
Utah St	100.0%	62.9%	29.8%	13.7%	7.6%	3.1%	1.0%
Washington	100.0%	72.1%	37.1%	19.6%	6.1%	2.1%	0.8%
Belmont	100.0%	44.6%	24.2%	11.1%	6.1%	2.4%	0.8%
Connecticut	100.0%	80.8%	45.0%	19.4%	5.6%	1.8%	0.7%
Gonzaga	100.0%	57.2%	23.7%	12.0%	4.1%	1.3%	0.3%
Cincinnati	100.0%	54.3%	28.4%	11.2%	3.0%	0.8%	0.3%
Illinois	100.0%	50.5%	11.7%	5.5%	2.3%	0.9%	0.2%
UNLV	100.0%	49.5%	11.4%	5.3%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
Vanderbilt	100.0%	57.7%	23.0%	5.8%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
West Virginia	100.0%	51.8%	18.3%	4.1%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%