Predicted MLB Playoff Matchups

As I have felt it necessary to update this site with the daily changes in playoff probability for each team, I thought it would also be interesting to update what the likely matchups will be when the post season arrives. I have mentioned in a prior post that the most probable World Series matchup is the Phillies vs. the Yankees, and that remains true today according to my calculations (23.2% of sims). One of the least probable - at least of the matchups which actually occurred once during the 100,000 simulations - is a rematch of last year's World Series (0.1% of sims). Considering San Fran is now 4 games out of the division lead and with their playoff prospects plummeting every day - down 32.8% in the last 7 days - it is very possible they do not even make the playoffs. So maybe 1 in 1000 isn't so far off.

Numbers in parentheses represent the probability of the team winning the matchup.